Oscars 2025 Predictions

~ philthebearblog

Let’s talk Oscars!

The ceremony will be live (on ITV if you are in the UK like me) tonight and is set to be one of the more unpredictable years for some time.

Just for some context here is who has won the big awards so far this year:

  • Cannes – Palme d’Or – Anora
  • The Golden Globes – Best Picture Drama – The Brutalist
  • The Golden Globes – Best Picture Musical or Comedy – Emilia Perez
  • BAFTA – Best Film – Conclave
  • Los Angeles Film Critics – Best Picture – Anora
  • National Board of Review – Wicked
  • National Society of Film Critics – Nickel Boys
  • New York Film Critics Circle – The Brutalist
  • Screen Actors Guild – Outstanding Performance by a Cast – Conclave
  • Screen Directors Guild – Best Director – Sean Baker for Anora

Let the predictions commence…

Best Picture

And the nominees are:

Should Win – The Brutalist

Will Win – The Brutalist

This one is a really tough call this year. Emilia Perez was a front runner for quite some time and has taken a huge hit during the campaign trail due to various controversies that I will not go into here. All that should really matter is that it is a genuinely bad film and in my opinion should not even be anywhere near this list. Nosferatu definitely deserves a spot in the nominees and is the best film not here. If The Brutalist does not win I think it will be between Anora and Conclave. But the fact that so many films are in with a chance is pretty unusual.

Directing

And the nominees are:

Should win – Brady Corbet

Will win – Brady Corbet

Tonight is the 97th Academy Awards and in the previous 96 iterations there have only been 28 times when the film that won Best Picture did not also win Best Director. I think this year could be another year. Personally what Brady Corbet achieved with a budget of $10 million is phenomenal and he should take this award. The fact that Conclave is not nominated in this category scuppers its chances somewhat in Picture which means that Anora and Sean Baker are the main other contenders.

Actor

And the nominees are:

Should win – Timothee Chalamet

Will win – Adrian Brody

Sebastian Stan’s appearance here is probably just a symptom of how much Hollywood hates Donald Trump. Unfortunately I have not seen Domingo’s performance which is supposed to be superb in a very good film. Fiennes is brilliant but fairly unshowy which may count against him. This is his third nomination and I think he will continue to be unsuccessful. For me, Chalamet is the best performance but it is in a film that has gone mostly under the radar in terms of awards. Brody on the other hand has been winning this at most other awards ceremonies. I am hoping the voters think Brody already has one (The Pianist) and they give it to the young up and coming actor.

Actress

And the nominees are:

Should win – Demi Moore

Will win – Demi Moore

This one is a two horse race. Will the young breakthrough performance from Mikey Madison beat the lifetime career award that would be Demi Moore winning. In terms of who I want to win, I think that Moore beats Madison purely on how brave and transformative her role was. In terms of who I think will win, I suspect that the voters will want to ensure that Moore receives an award now when she may not get another opportunity. Everyone else in this category is just watching those two.

Supporting Actor

And the nominees are:

Should win – Guy Pearce

Will win – Kieran Culkin

The field in this category is incredibly strong and I would not be unhappy with any of these performances taking the award. The outsiders are Borisov and Strong. The frontrunner and likely winner is Kieran Culkin. My personal pick though would be Pearce as he is utterly superb in The Brutalist. It is nice to see Edward Norton here though, his fourth nomination in the acting categories but his first in a decade after being labelled “difficult”. He is a superb actor and it is nice to see him getting credit.

Supporting Actress

And the nominees are:

Should win – Monica Barbaro

Will win – Zoe Saldana

Zoe Saldana has won this award at every awards ceremony that I am aware of and is going to win this Oscar. It is probably the award I am most certain of this year. Saldana is a fantastic actress and also probably the highest grossing actor to ever make films given that the Avatar and Marvel movies she stars in have taken over $5 billion. But I think this is a bad movie and I do not think it should be winning any awards. My vote would be for Monica Barbaro who was superb as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown.

Animated Feature Film

Should win – Flow

Will win – Inside Out 2

I have only seen 3 of the nominees in this category and the one that I think should win has not yet got a review because I was going to post it when it actually gets released in UK Cinemas during the school holidays. Despite it being available to watch in other territories for a very long time! The vagaries of cinema distribution aside I suspect most voters will see a half decent Pixar film on the list and vote for it out of reflex.

Writing – Adapted

Should win – Conclave

Will win – Conclave

Conclave is a superb film that is well liked. It just is not going to win any major categories, which means it will get recognised here.

Writing – Original

Should win – A Real Pain

Will win – Anora

This is a really strong field again and whilst I think the more intricate and witty A Real Pain should win I think that Anora will take this one and miss out on Picture/Director.

International Film

Should win – Flow

Will win – Emilia Perez

I have only seen 2 of the 5 films nominated and I am still willing to bet I would like the other 3 more than I liked Emilia Perez. But hey, it is going to win so lets just get used to the idea!

As for the others lets go with…

  • Cinematography – The Brutalist (I want Nosferatu to win)
  • Costume Design – Wicked
  • Editing – The Brutalist
  • Makeup and Hairstyling – Wicked
  • Music Score – Wicked
  • Music Song – Mi Camino from Emilia Perez (sigh)
  • Production Design – Wicked (I want Nosferatu to win)
  • Sound – Wicked
  • Visual Effects – Dune Part 2

I will not be taking a guess at Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Documentary Short Film or Documentary Feature Film as I have not seen any of them and all I can do is parrot what has won in the lead up at other ceremonies.

So there we have it, if my predictions come to pass both The Brutalist and Wicked will win 5 awards. But if any film is going to smash my predictions to smithereens it will be Anora.

Who is staying up late tonight and who do you think will win?

Bleary eyed edit:

9 of 19 correct predictions. Anora took 5 awards and The Brutalist took 3. There were some welcome surprises and Conan O’Brien was a good host.

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